After five races in the books for the 2013 season, we have a better idea of who has gone to work on the Gen 6 car and who may be a little behind. I know it’s really early to be thinking of the chase, but the five completed races cover most of the types of tracks that make up the 36 race schedule. Before I give my top 12 picks I just want to say that so far the new car has given us some great racing. While some drivers may not like it yet, I can argue that we might have the best on-track product that I can remember. The off-track drama had been just as entertaining. While seeing Denny Hamlin get injured was unfortunate, it is nice to see the emotion and passion spill over outside the race car. I applaud NASCAR for not stepping in and letting the drivers show those true emotions. Now on to my picks for who looks like they will make a successful run into the chase. These are in no particular order except for the 10 who make it in on points and the two who do it with wins.
1. Brad Keselowski – Not much needs to be said here. Brad and Paul make a formidable team and always seem to be around the top 5 in the closing laps. He was about to get his fifth top 5 in as many races before his engine overheated at California. Penske has shown they have a handle on the new car and with the switch to Ford, have a real shot at two championships in a row. Not everyone is a bad Brad fan, but you can’t deny he backs up that attitude with his performance.
2. Dale Earnhardt – This pick is not to please the throngs of loyal fans out there. Dale’s performance so far has earned him a spot in my top 12. With finishing in the top 10 for all five races and in the top five 3 times, Dale is again a serious contender. We’ve all seen the interviews with him talking about how much he likes the new car. At first I was skeptical, but I’ve been made a believer. I’ve watched him battle back from a pit road mistake and Steve Letarte has been able to make the right adjustments so he could be there at the end.
3. Matt Kenseth – Matt has been under the microscope after making the move to Joe Gibbs Racing and leaving a successful career at Roush Fenway behind. I thought he was making a lateral move at best, but he might be proving me wrong. When his cars have held together, he has been fast. Matt is a smart driver and always takes care of his equipment. He has a David Pearson quality to him and that’s why I think he’ll be around at the end of the year. I think TRD’s reliability problems are behind them. Look for Matt to get a couple of pre-chase wins and top 10 everyone to death.
4. Carl Edwards – Fresh off one of his worse season, Carl is off to a fast start this year. With one win already under his belt it looks like we have the old Carl Edwards back. He would be even higher in the points if it wasn’t for getting caught up in a wreck at Daytona. Having Jimmy Fennig come on board is probably one of the best moves Jack Roush has made. Jimmy is a very good crew chief and has a history of turning around under-performing teams. Bob Osbourne is also still in the background helping all three teams.
5. Greg Biffle – I thought about putting Greg in the “in on wins” section with his up and down performance so far this year. I was a little worried after a lackluster race at Las Vegas because of Roush Fenway’s historical success on mile and a half tracks. Greg renewed my faith with his 6th place run at California. I like his crew chief Matt Pucia and I look for Greg to run well at the big tracks. Las Vegas was a mere speed bump and Biffle will be a contender for a few wins this year.
6. Jimmie Johnson – Ok this was an easy one. Our 2013 Daytona 500 winner was off to a good start, but has had trouble the last two races. Still I’m sure there is little doubt in anyones mind that 5-time will once again be battling for a championship. Chad and Jimmie are the best at performing when it counts. The two are constantly pushing the boundaries of the rule book, but that’s what it takes to be the best. Look for Jimmie to be a favorite next weekend at Martinsville. A couple more wins would almost guarantee Jimmie a chase birth.
7 . Clint Bowyer – Do you believe in the 2nd place curse? I know I do. It seems like the second place points finisher always has a tough time the following year. Carl Edwards has felt the wrath of the curse twice. Bowyer has had two rough races this year so far at Las Vegas and California, but had shown speed before his engine expired during the Autoclub 400. MWR took a big step up last year in performance which I believe comes from them making some smart hires. One of those hires was Clint Bowyer himself. They are committed to becoming one of NASCAR powerhouse teams and I don’t see why that can’t happen.
8. Kevin Harvick – Mr. “where he come from?” is living up to his name, but with how often he’s seen at the front of the field, the nickname may be dead. Harvick is not known for great qualifying , but usually makes his way to the front. RCR seems to have upped their game this year with the new car. I point to Paul Menard sitting 8th in the stands as more evidence. Paul seems to fizzle out by mid-season and I don’t think he’ll make the chase. I think Harvick will get better through the summer. If Kevin can keep the speed in his car for the end of the race, don’t be surprised to see him fire off a couple of wins.
9. Kasey Kahne – Kahne’s move to Hendrick seems to be paying off. This is the first time since Evernham that Kahne hasn’t experienced some kind of large charge in the off-season. No new manufacturer, team, or crew chief. With the mighty support of Hendrick behind him, Kenny Francis can continue to build his notebook and lean on his teammates. With already one win, I look for Kahne to have his best year in the Sprint Cup series. Bristol is not one of Kahne’s better tracks so the fact that he won there should have his competitors taking notice.
10. Kyle Busch – My last chase points pick is none other than Rowdy himself. Kyle missed the chase last year due to mainly engine issues. TRD even came out earlier this year and apologized for costing him a championship run. Those issues spilled over to 2013, but the JGR Toyotas have been fast. Kyle Busch was able to make the California sweep scoring his first win of the year. It was also Toyota’s first win in their backyard. Kyle has a string of top 5s going and the momentum of winning. I think running JGR nationwide cars has taken some of the stress off his shoulders from running his own team.
Make the Chase Based on Wins:
11. Joey Logano – this is my surprise pick for this years chase. Joey has been in the headlines for butting heads with Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart, but he has backed up his talk on track by running up front. The move to Penske was just what “Sliced bread” needed to re-energize his career. I think he will get along with his new teammate a lot more than his former teammates at JGR. He always seemed to be living in the shadow of Kyle and Denny. Now with his new team he’s on a mission to prove he belongs at a top-tier team. Look for Joey to get a two or three wins before the year is over.
12. Tony Stewart – I went back and forth on this pick between Tony Stewart or Jeff Gordon. Both have not had the start they wanted, but both are at great teams that will sort their issues out. Since this chase spot is all about wins, I had to tip my hat in Tony’s favor. He is a racer that goes for the wins and not the points. Tony runs well when the temperature goes up. It probably has something to do with his fondness of slick tracks. Look for him to knock off a few wins during the summer and win his way into the chase.
Others that were considered: Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Martin Truex Jr.
What are your thoughts on my Top 12? What drivers would you swap out?
image from wikimedia author Jarrett Campbell